Shark attacks are at their lowest levels in five years.
Marine biologists had no idea why.
But marketers knew.
It was the recession. Seaside vacations were at their lowest levels in a decade.
This recession has been the deepest and longest in 75 years, and a downturn of that depth carves a big groove in our world. Much of that groove will be permanent.
A big part of any recession is psychological. The ground shifts beneath our feet, and we all feel a subtle insecurity in our daily lives. Entrepreneurs, whose incomes are tied to company revenues, are experiencing drops of over 50%. People are wary of job security. To many who do keep their jobs, the recession isn’t a matter of not having money, it’s a matter of choosing how to spend it.
So consumers make a number of changes in their buying habits. They become less “status” oriented and instead jump tracks to become more “value” oriented. They leave trusted brands behind and look for new ones that offer a similar promise at a reduced price.
When I look at my life, I see a big change in what I drive. As the gas prices spiked and the recession began to rear its head, I made a decision to trade in my big SUV for the smallest SUV I could find. It meant changing brands. In my mind, it was a temporary switch.
But guess what? I love my new truck. It’s a pleasure to drive, it’s better on gas, the price tag was $20K less and the new dealership treats me like a valued customer.
Here’s the thing: I’m not going back. My downscaling (although it really doesn’t feel like one) is now a permanent change.
Look at auto sales right now. In maybe the worst time for auto manufacturers in modern history, Hyundai just declared record sales. Hyundai’s sales surged 26% while the rest of the industry is down 13%. Their success was driven by high quality ratings, value pricing and a Canadian public searching out greater value.
The majority of customers who have helped push Hyundai's market share to a record 7.3 per cent are former Chrysler and GM buyers.
Wine is another category seeing a re-set. Many wine drinkers decided to downscale from $20 bottles of wine to $12 or $11 brands – and have discovered wines they actually like. A lot. They would never have found these wines because they had a psychological barrier to spending less before the downturn.
As a recession ends, history also tells us that old wealth hugs their decreased incomes, whereas the new rich are anxious to spend.
So luxury brands have a window of opportunity coming up.
Smart marketers are looking for opportunities. If you’re a marketer who hasn’t made a single change to the way you do business through this recession, you’re in for a prolonged period of pain that will extend well into the recovery.
Because it isn’t just a recession this time.
It’s a re-set.